What kind of futures do children have a right to?
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This article is co-authored by Itla and Sitra, and it will be published on the websites of both organisations at the same time.
What will the daily life of children and young people look like in the Finland of the future? Looking about fifteen years ahead, to 2040 and beyond, what kind of world and society will children and young people live in? What kind of future do we want them to have, and what kind of future are we creating with the decisions and choices we make today?
It is said that children are the future. This statement can be seen to emphasise intergenerational thinking and children and young people’s power to define futures, which means that children and young people are recognised as active makers of the future. However, it can also be seen as today’s adults evading their responsibility for building a better future. Although children and the future are often mentioned in the same breath in speeches, the emphasis in social discussion and decision-making is on the present and the near future. This means that the impacts of today’s decisions and actions on children, young people and future generations are not adequately taken into consideration. The decisions and actions that are taken or not taken today will either strengthen or weaken the conditions for children, young people and future generations to live a good, safe and meaningful life in the future.
Childhood and adolescence have intrinsic value, and they are important life stages in themselves. They do not take place separately from the rest of society. Instead, they always reflect the broader developments and society’s values, attitudes and atmosphere. The future of children and young people is often taken for granted. Changes are examined in a linear manner instead of looking at them comprehensively. As a result, the longer-term impacts of phenomena on children and young people are ignored.
This is not only a challenge at the national level. It is a global challenge and a highly topical issue. Approved by the UN General Assembly in September 2024, the Pact for the Future and its annex, the Declaration on Future Generations, is the first declaration by the international community to lay down measures for taking future generations into account in decision-making. Promoting the perspectives of future generations in governance is still in its infancy, and it requires implementation at the national level. In the words of UN Secretary-General Antonio Gúterres, the world has changed and is developing so dramatically that we cannot create a future fit for our grandchildren with a system built by our grandparents.
In a time of uncertainties and surprises, it is increasingly important to understand our complex world and the developments and tensions that have an impact on childhood and adolescence. The purpose of foresight is to support the creation of a good and preferred future by identifying alternative future trends and actions that are needed to promote the desired future.
Not much foresight and future-oriented work has been done in Finland concerning childhood and adolescence. Internationally, examples can be found of foresight activities that are focused on the future of children and young people. UNICEF Innocenti annually publishes the Prospects for children, a report on the impact of global trends on children and strengthens youth foresight on child rights concerning the future, for example. The Institute for the Future (2024) and the W.K. Kellogg Foundation carried out a participatory foresight process that identified the most significant forces of change that have an impact on the future of children and young people, and outlined 10 forecasts extending to 2035. The Abu Dhabi Early Childhood Authority (ECA, 2024) has just published a report on megatrends that have an impact on early childhood. The foresight reports mentioned above show how the impacts of global megatrends on children and young people can vary depending on the geographical and cultural context.
Child-focused foresight opens up perspectives on a child’s rights to a good future. It examines the possible, probable, desirable and undesirable impacts of societal changes and phenomena on children and young people. Foresight can be used to analyse short- and long-term changes that have an impact on the daily life of children. In child-focused foresight, children’s needs, rights and comprehensive wellbeing are the key guiding factors. The starting point for foresight activities that take the perspective of children and young people is that there are always many futures.
Childhood and adolescence are not the same for everyone, either now or in the future, and children and young people are not a homogeneous group that will face future phenomena and their impacts in the same manner. Even the meaning of youth and adolescence varies from one era to another and between countries, which is reflected in legislation, among other things.
Child-focused foresight supports the assessment of the impacts of decision-making and actions from the perspective of children and young people, as well as future generations. Finland’s National Child Strategy aims to make child impact assessment a regular part of all decision-making and actions related to children. Future-oriented thinking, foresight and anticipating various impacts over the longer term are not yet part of child impact assessment.
In this article, we look at megatrends and interpret their potential impacts from the perspective of children and young people. Although most of the phenomena we highlight are widely known, there has been little consideration of their impacts and significance in the daily life of children and young people in Finland. When phenomena are mainly interpreted from the perspective of adults and the current situation, their significance for children and young people are left unidentified and possible future trends, in terms of both risks and opportunities, are ignored.
Sitra and Itla share the aim of promoting wellbeing in Finland. Itla’s mission is focused on children, young people and families with children, while Sitra focuses on society as a whole. Together, we recognise that we cannot build a good future unless we take the perspective of children and young people into consideration in foresight activities. With this article, we want to invite everyone and, above all, today’s societal actors and decision-makers, to think about what futures look like from the perspective of children and young people, and how we can together build a better future for today’s children and young people and those who will come after them.
In this article, we do not focus on sectors or individual megatrends in the typical manner. Instead, our aim is to provide a more comprehensive view by identifying the intertwined nature of, and tensions between, the changes that are taking place at the same time. We examine the potential combined impacts and cross-cutting impacts of megatrends and trends on the lives of children and young people over different time horizons, and we look at which questions about the future need to be discussed right now. We highlight alternative futures and weak signals, which are concrete examples of what the future might look like. The purpose of the signals is to inspire people to consider what would happen if the phenomenon in question broadly became part of the daily life of children and young people.
What happens to children in an ageing society?
Finnish society is at a turning point in many ways. Over the coming decades, the number of children and young people in Finland will decrease while the proportion of the elderly population will increase. According to the 2024 population projection, the number of persons aged under 15 would fall from the present level of 832,000 to about 700,000 by 2070 if the birth rate were to remain unchanged. At the same time, the proportion of the population represented by people aged 65 and over is projected to rise from the current level of 23% to 31%, which is more than two million. The projection is based on the assumption that recent population trends remain unchanged.
A recent report on population policy describes how the birth rate in Finland has been declining for a long time, but the rate of its decline during this decade has been faster than expected. While this is a global phenomenon, the decline in the birth rate in Finland is the most dramatic in Europe. In 2023, the birth rate was at a historical low at 1.26 children per woman. The key reason for the decline in birth rates in Finland and Europe as a whole is that children are born later, if at all. The report presents a number of proposals to support the goal of increasing the birth rate, but the fact is that there is no single solution to this complex issue, and no country has yet successfully reversed a declining birth rate.
According to MDI’s latest forecast, the population density in most of Finland will decrease by 2040, regardless of whether there is a high or low rate of immigration. If immigration were to increase, the population may grow, especially in the Helsinki metropolitan area and growth centres, but the number of children will decrease considerably regardless of the level of immigration.
The ageing of the population and the decline in the number of children and families with children affect the daily lives of children and young people in many ways. The regional concentration of the population means that the environment in which children and young people grow varies greatly depending on the geographical location and municipality. In the Helsinki metropolitan area and growth centres, the population is more multicultural and, in the future, there will be fewer children and families with children in sparsely populated areas. The number of children entering first grade provides a concrete illustration of the decline in the number of children. Between 2021 to 2040, the number of pupils entering first grade is projected to decrease by 5.8% in Uusimaa, while in Kainuu, the decline will be as sharp as 34.8%. It is recognised that the change in the population structure has significant impacts on the organisation of early childhood education, pre-primary education and primary education in municipalities.
It is recognised that the change in the population structure has significant impacts on the organisation of early childhood education, pre-primary education and primary education in municipalities.
The public discussion on the topic of demographic change has been focused on the vitality of the economy, the adequacy of labour and the dependency ratio in the welfare state. Is there a need to be worried about population decline if the smaller future generations receive even better education and technology significantly increases economic productivity? The global impacts of population decline on nature’s carrying capacity is also a topic on which opinions are divided, and those with radical antinatalist views are even prepared to forgo future generations entirely.
The decline in the number of children also has cultural and social impacts that typically go unnoticed in future discussions. What will the streets, neighbourhoods and family get-togethers of the future look like when there are fewer children and young people?In what kind of families will children and young people live in the future, and how will the dynamics of social relationships change?
From the perspective of creating a good future for children and young people, the key is to build a society that is good for children and young people to live in and in which they can participate in shaping desirable views of the future.
The decline in the number of children and the ageing of the population may have broader impacts on society’s capacity for renewal, child and family positivity, intergenerational understanding and trust in democracy. Japan and South Korea have had low birth rates for a long time, and they are becoming super-aged societies. What future prospects do they offer? What if society starts to exclude children and young people, or they begin to isolate themselves on their own initiative? What would happen to the vitality of society and regions?
In South Korea, policy measures to address the fertility crisis have not produced results, which is why the need for a new paradigm has been recognised, one that would support equality and family-friendly policies in working life in particular. In Japan, efforts have been made to adapt to demographic change with the help of long-term visions and plans whereby state-of-the-art technology would help achieve a sustainable society with a high level of wellbeing. “Future Design”, in turn, is an example of a Japanese initiative to introduce the perspective of future generations to democratic decision-making.
From the perspective of creating a good future for children and young people, the key is to build a society that is good for children and young people to live in and in which they can participate in shaping desirable views of the future. Whose ideals and values will guide societal development in the future? How do we ensure that there will be a continued understanding and willingness in the future to invest in children, young people and future generations? What if nostalgia starts to define us as a nation culturally?
Strengthening the participation of children and young people must be taken more seriously
Future generations and other species cannot participate in decision-making here and now, but children and young people can — or could. Following the adoption of conventions on the rights of children, various efforts have been made to develop structures and methods that strengthen the participation of children and young people.
Many young people would like to be more involved in influencing things, but young people do not perceive societal participation as inviting. They have also been invited to participate in societal discussions and to be heard in connection with decision-making processes. In spite of these efforts, young people have experienced belittlement and being overlooked, meaning that their views were not genuinely taken into consideration. They tend to be perceived as inexperienced and uninformed, and the opinions they express are not taken seriously. Young people are not given the opportunity to influence the discussion content, topics or decisions. Even when they have been invited to participate, it has not been made clear to them why their participation was sought and what matters they can genuinely influence. Young people who express their views have even been subject to ridicule and outright hatred in public.
Still, strengthening the participation and influence opportunities of children and young people is something that should be taken more seriously. In addition to being a question of fairness, it also concerns issues related to comprehensive wellbeing, such as participation, feelings of meaningfulness and hope, societal trust and faith in the future.
How would politics change if children, young people and the future were genuinely focused on and given strong agency? Should the voting age be reduced or are other means of developing democracy and mainstreaming intergenerational perspectives sufficient?
Sitra has sparked discussion about the power to define futures. The power to define futures is the power to influence what is considered desirable or possible in the future. The power to define futures is not limited to decision-making; it extends to what is said about the future, how the future is described, and whose voices are heard in the discussion about the future. According to Sitra’s Futures Barometer 2023, a large proportion of Finns feel that the voice of children and young people is not sufficiently heard at present. However, their voices can be strengthened by expanding the power to define futures, which means inviting children and young people to participate in the discussion about the future.
Children’s and young people’s faith and confidence in the future should be fostered and strengthened. It is a question of the functioning of democracy and the social contract between generations. It is important to invite young people also to find solutions to challenges related to wellbeing. Participation strengthens meaningfulness and perceived wellbeing.
Children and young people can have fresh perspectives, critical questions and visions that can help look at things in new ways. According to a school health promotion survey conducted by the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, only 11% of pupils in 8th and 9th grade in primary education are of the opinion that they have good opportunities to exercise influence at school. For upper secondary students, the corresponding figure is 14%, and for vocational students it is 27%.
While it is important to increase participation and opportunities to exercise influence, it is also important to remember that the responsibility for solving problems that affect the future cannot be put on the shoulders of young people.
Glimpses of alternative futures
What if having children becomes politicised? The decreasing number of children has significant impacts on society, and they are also linked to politics. There have been discussions in many countries, including Finland, on incentives related to having children. In authoritarian countries, even more drastic measures are possible. Russia intends to ban “the ideology of childlessness” and declare it an extreme ideology. Having children is not just a personal choice; instead, it is considered essential for preserving the values of Russian society.
What if new forms of community make society more child-friendly? “Mommunes“, which are communes for single mothers, make it possible to share expenses, raise children together and have support from a community. Two-year-old Martti got four grandmothers next door when his mother decided to ask for childcare assistance from people in her apartment building.
What if children’s voices were heard in the discussion about the future? The voices of children and young people are not adequately heard in the discussion about the future. (Futures Barometer 2023) However, there are many ways to expand children’s power to define futures. Teams from Sitra’s Power to Define Futures programme develop ways for children to participate in urban planning, drawing up future scenarios and discussing the school of the future, for example.
How do we ensure a peaceful environment for growth in an increasingly digital world?
The digital transformation is one of the most significant changes of our time. It cuts across all areas of life and has broad impacts on society. It has changed not only the way we work but also the way we carry out our daily tasks. We spend a tremendous proportion of our waking hours using various devices. They connect us to social communities and enable us to take advantage of diverse services. Increasingly, we also make use of devices while we sleep: we measure the duration and quality of sleep or optimise the temperature and air quality in the bedroom.
The digital transformation has diverse impacts on the lives of children and young people. Children and young people are growing up in a world where the use of technology in different areas is part of daily life and life is optimised by artificial intelligence solutions. We are no longer limited by time and place in the same manner as before. The boundaries between the virtual world and the physical world are becoming blurred. The metaverse is a different environment for growth than the physical society with its institutions and norms. Algorithm-driven social media socialises young people into a different kind of culture than the school system and analogue media.
The online world is full of useful information and opportunities, but also content that is unsuitable for children and young people, as well as efforts to influence people that are so effective that even many adults fall victim to them. In this year’s Global Risks Report, the World Economic Forum included misinformation and disinformation among the most significant global risks for the first time. Misinformation and disinformation are also increasingly targeted at children and young people. According to Plan International, 35% of girls have experienced stress, worry or anxiety due to false information on the Internet, and one in five girls have ceased to engage in political and social discussions online because of it. New forms of child exploitation are also spreading online. They also spill over from the virtual world to other environments, which is reflected in an increase in phenomena such as humiliating violence among young people.
It would be therefore important to assess the impacts of the digital transformation on the lives of children and young people from multiple perspectives and also ask them what kind of future they hope for.
According to recent studies (e.g. Boniel-Nissim et al. 2024), social media and gaming have negative impacts on the lives of children and young people, and they should be more effectively addressed through multidisciplinary cooperation. In discussions about the problems of young people, the responsibility is often placed on young people themselves and their parents, even though the issue is a question of global forces, a battle between China and United States, where the entire global population is on the battlefield. Children and young people are particularly vulnerable, as their resilience is not as developed as that of adults. Challenges related to privacy protection also add to the problems.
At the same time, studies show that digital media also has many positive impacts on young people’s learning, sense of community and wellbeing, for example. It would be therefore important to assess the impacts of the digital transformation on the lives of children and young people from multiple perspectives and also ask them what kind of future they hope for.
Rules are necessary, but there is also a need for more ethical and child-friendly technology
Social media expert Dr. Suvi Uski (2024) draws a distinction between old and new social media, and predicts that super-addictive features will soon spread to the old platforms as well. The mass of data accumulated on digital behaviour has made it possible to “hack our psychology”, and there is no previous experience of the consequences of this in the history of humankind.
Researchers, teachers, parents and politicians alike have expressed concerns about the impact of the digital transformation on children’s and young people’s attention spans, learning outcomes and brain development. There have been active discussions on banning mobile phones in schools in many countries, including Finland, and the Government is currently preparing a legislative proposal that would restrict the use of mobile phones in schools. Other countries have been quicker to introduce recommendations and restrictions concerning screen time for children and young people and the use of smartphones. Examples of such countries include Sweden, France and Spain. Norway is planning to ban social media for people under the age of 15, and Australia for people under the age of 16. Some companies have also started to recognise their responsibility. However, a culture of banning does not necessarily strengthen self-regulation and responsible digital agency. Smart digital agency is something that requires practice.
The reactive approach, which aims to address identified deficiencies and problems, is illustrative of the challenge related to the digital transformation. Although the digital transformation as a phenomenon has been part of our lives for a long time, its side effects can still come as a surprise. To adequately protect children and young people from the negative impacts of digitalisation and social media, there is a need for a more comprehensive assessment of future impacts and a collective discussion on rules. For example, companies that produce addictive content, games and services should be better engaged in the discussion and the development of ethical and responsible solutions.
In the big picture, digitalisation has been so rapid that guidelines, rules and legislation have lagged behind. The overall situation has improved in recent times, and the EU, for example, has sought to steer developments by introducing several digital and data regulations aimed at guaranteeing people the right to influence the sharing and use of their personal data. Legislation that strengthens the rights of individuals also has positive impacts on the lives of children and young people. Instagram, for example, has been forced to respond to criticism and the platform now makes teens’ accounts private.
The starting point is that companies that develop services cannot base their operations on profit maximisation alone, but must act in a more responsible manner. Whether the regulations have enough of an effect is a separate question.
Ideally, legislation and the discussion about rules both strengthen people’s awareness of the side effects of digitalisation and their personal rights. At the same time, it is important to invest in digital education, which means not only digital information literacy and acting responsibly in digital environments but also the ability to imagine and demand alternative digital futures.
Technology will never again be as unintelligent as it is today, and the next generation will not know a world without AI. Generative AI will spread to all areas of life and change the way we operate and work, also with children and young people, and how we learn learn and interact with each other. AI is being increasingly integrated into different growing environments for children and young people. Understanding AI, its creative use and influencing the development of AI is the right of every child and young person but, at the same time, it is necessary to promote children’s rights and comprehensive wellbeing. Future-oriented discussion on the topic of AI requires increasing understanding and better AI literacy from both children and educators.
The digital transformation is a cultural change that has broad impacts
Ultimately, digitalisation is a large and comprehensive societal transformation that is not limited to individual legislative issues or even the rights of individuals. Instead, it is comprehensively connected to the way we live and understand the world — and ourselves as part of it. That is why the digital transformation should be examined as a force that profoundly shapes society and culture. This way, we could gain a new understanding of its impacts on children and young people also in the longer term.
One example of its cultural impacts is how it influences our ways of building relationships and interacting with others. Social media and its algorithms are known to feed hate speech and polarisation because that attracts more attention. The divergence of value systems between women and men, different age groups or population groups may have a destabilising effect on social order and social structures.
Channels based on fast digital communication may make relationships superficial and, in the worst case, people will become disposable. Past relationships can be literally swiped aside if there is a better option. And what if young people in the future prefer to pursue a relationship with an AI that perfectly matches their preferences instead of pursuing a relationship with a human being?
Spending a large amount of time online can prevent the formation of close friendships and have an adverse effect on wellbeing. When a pupil spends breaks between classes on their phone, they avoid exposure to the kind of interaction that is essential for the development of social skills. Interaction via digital devices is not comparable in quality to face-to-face interaction. There is convincing research evidence on the negative impacts of screen time and digitalisation on children’s brain development. The younger the child, the more important mutual face-to-face interaction is for the development of empathy, interpersonal skills, self-esteem and the ability to process one’s emotions. If these traits are not strengthened, will we be condemned to loneliness in the future? There are already indications of people becoming increasingly isolated in their homes. Of course, digitalisation is not the only factor contributing to isolation, but it does make it easier for a person to stay at home.
According to a recent Finnish study, girls in upper secondary school had nearly six hours of screen time per day, of with social media use representing approximately four hours of that total. One in six survey participants met the criteria for possible social media addiction, and over one-third exceeded the cut-off for possible anxiety disorders. The Early Childhood Authority has highlighted the value of time as a key megatrend in childhood. The value of time refers to the intense competition for the attention of children, young people and parents. What do children, young people, parents and families spend their time on together, and what kinds of impacts does it have on children’s growth and development?
Social media can fuel your social imagination, help find solutions that suit you and serve as a natural setting for exercising societal influence.
Digitalisation can also have positive impacts on the lives of children and young people. Information obtained online, social media channels and various discussion groups and communities can provide young people, in particular, opportunities to build their own identity. Online, they can find role models, like-minded people and easily accessible support in tough times. Social media can fuel your social imagination and help find solutions that suit you.
Social media is also a natural environment for young people to exercise influence on society. For example, in the US presidential elections four years ago, K-pop fans caused damage to Donald Trump’s campaign by hijacking social media hashtags used by Trump supporters and using them to spread anti-racist content, and sabotaging a Trump rally by registering for tickets with no intention of attending. How can we shape our actions so that they promote the positive impacts of digitalisation and prevent the negative impacts? There are many elements to a balanced digital daily life. A number of them are presented in a guide published by the Finnish Society on Media Education, for example.
One key question related to digitalisation is how to strengthen ethical, responsible and inclusive design. In addition to restrictions on children and young people, we need to consider what kind of digital world we want to build. The responsibility for this lies with us adults — the digital future and its rules will be what we make them. Will we allow the digital future to continue to be built on the data giants’ terms? Could we engage the active participation of children and young people and demand that technology be responsible and ethical? From the perspective of children’s rights, it is essential to invest in the protection of children, but it is equally important to ensure that children and young people have the right to exercise influence. Defining the desired direction of digitalisation is not just for adults to decide.
Glimpses of alternative futures
What if children had digital peace in their growth environment? Protecting childhood — working together to build digital peace in the growth environment is an initiative by which a group of experts working on future-oriented themes and parents have sought to inspire discussion about the age limits for smartphones and digital peace in the growth environment, which is something that different parties ranging from educators to parents and decision-makers can promote together.
What if children could also contribute to the development of AI? In Scotland, there have been efforts related to children’s rights and AI. Scotland’s Artificial Intelligence Strategy, which was drawn up in 2021, is built around reliable, safe and inclusive AI. In Scotland, particular emphasis has been placed on ensuring that people have strong confidence in the use of AI in the public administration and that all population groups can participate in AI-related development and decision-making. One example of this is engaging the participation of children in an AI Conference held in 2025. The Scottish school curriculum combines children’s AI literacy, individual rights, social participation and future-oriented thinking.
What if digital devices supported learning? Digital devices can support learning in many ways; for example, when in-person attendance at school is not possible or when there are challenges associated with learning.In Helsinki, robots have been deployed to support the school attendance of pupils with long-term illnesses. The child can use the robot to maintain contact with other pupils and attend classes remotely via a tablet. A joint study by the University of Helsinki and Tampere University found that the use of digital devices in teaching situations did not lead to weaker learning outcomes for pupils. Instead, learning outcomes were actually improved if digital technology was targeted at pupils experiencing various learning-related challenges.
How do we secure a safe future for children in this time of an ecological sustainability crisis?
In a comprehensive climate report published in October 2024, researchers assessed the development of 35 factors that are critical to the future of humanity. Of these planetary vital signs, 25 are at record levels, and we are on the path towards a climate catastrophe. The climate is hotter and glaciers are thinner than ever. Carbon dioxide and methane emissions are at their peak. In spite of our pursuit of sustainable development, we have not been successful in reducing fossil fuel consumption. The contrary has happened. The record figures also have consequences on people. The researchers estimate that hundreds of millions of people may be displaced over the course of the century, and entire societies may collapse.
The erosion of nature’s carrying capacity affects everyone, but it has the greatest impact on the lives of children and young people, not to mention future generations. According to UNICEF, one billion children live in extremely high-risk countries with regard to climate change. It is estimated that, under the current Paris Agreement pledges, children born in 2020 will experience twice as many wildfires, 2.8 times as many crop failures, 2.6 times as many droughts, 2.8 times as many river floods and 6.8 times as many heat waves than people born in 1960.
The sustainability crisis is a threat to the realisation of children’s rights
The impacts of global warming on the lives of children and young people are very concrete, and they pose challenges to the realisation of many of children’s rights. How do we guarantee the right to a home, clean water and sufficient food if entire regions become uninhabitable? How do we ensure safe living environments and access to education when floods, storms and wildfires become increasingly common? The climate crisis poses a challenge to many of the articles of the Convention on the Rights of the Child — even the right to life. To underscore this link, the UN Committee on the Rights of the Child supplemented the Convention on the Rights of the Child with general comment No. 26, which addresses the relationship between the rights of the child and environmental problems and climate change.
Global warming makes life vulnerable and uncertain and puts a strain on not only children’s physical wellbeing but also their mental wellbeing. Disasters and crises can cause post-traumatic stress disorders. Fears, feelings of insecurity and worries may increase and can also affect cognitive abilities. There are also adaptation challenges related to changing living environments and societies. Mental health stress factors can affect children even before birth. Children whose lives also involve other stressors are in a particularly vulnerable position. The effects of these experiences on children’s lives can be long-lasting. They affect the child’s entire life and their marks are also visible in many ways at the level of society.
In Finland, global warming is already causing considerable concern, uncertainty and feelings of insecurity among young people. A sense of injustice is also a common feeling, as many young people feel that adults have betrayed them. At the same time, young people have found it challenging to exercise influence regarding the climate: economic and technology-based perspectives dominate and limit future-oriented discussions, and young people are often not taken seriously in the discussions. Although there are differences in the perceptions of young people, Sitra’s Futures Barometer indicates that environmental issues are more important to young people than for older age groups. From an intergenerational ethics perspective, global warming is a particularly challenging problem: those who will suffer the most from the changes are temporally distant from those who caused the changes. The consequences are broad and far-reaching, and they may affect not only the development of economic cycles but also who (future people, other species) has the necessary conditions for life.
The ecological sustainability crisis in itself is a threat to the future of children and young people, but it also has numerous indirect impacts. Different crises are intertwined. The further global warming progresses, the more challenging living conditions become in many regions. International future scenarios draw particular attention to climate refugeeism, which is likely to increase as a result of extreme conditions, such as droughts, floods and wildfires, and affect the living conditions of children and families. Changes in living environments can also lead to an accelerating fight for resources, such as water and arable land. The threat of violence and conflicts will increase.
The sustainability transition also involves issues from the perspective of children and young people that are important to consider. The demand for metals used in batteries has increased mining activity in the Global South. For example, many children work in the mining industry in Congo, and monitoring their rights in a jungle of complex supply chains is difficult. Mining operations may also have long-term local environmental impacts that affect the future of children who live in the area. How can we take different perspectives into consideration and promote a fair transition?
Procrastination will also lead to negative impacts on Finland
In Finland, it is often joked that we will benefit from climate change: temperatures will rise to a comfortable level, there is plenty of water and tourism will increase. Nevertheless, the reality is that the situation is not that rosy. We will also face a number of challenges. Increased rainfall, hot weather and storms will pose challenges to our infrastructure as well as our health. It is also possible that global warming will have different effects. According to researchers rising sea temperatures may affect ocean currents and disrupt the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. If this were to happen, the Nordic countries would experience significant cooling instead of warming this century, and winter temperatures in Finland could fall by as much as tens of degrees. Whatever happens, those who will suffer the most from the changing conditions will be the people who are the most vulnerable, such as children and the elderly.
Changes at the global level also affect us, as Finland does not exist separately from the rest of the world. Procrastination in climate change mitigation exacerbates its impacts and increases the associated risks, directly weakening the conditions for children, young people and future generations to have a good and safe future. At worst, the kind of procrastination that is taking place at present could lead to critical tipping points for climate change, which would have catastrophic consequences for the future of the planet and human societies. That would throw the world into an era of unprecedented uncertainty and insecurity, where various crises, both rapid and acute and slow and creeping, become intertwined and reinforce each other. Many of the changes would be irreversible and they could potentially lead to the permanent loss of certain conditions for a good life in the future. The situation is particularly challenging from the perspective of intergenerational equity.
Glimpses of alternative futures
What if schools were a channel for climate action by children and young people? The Climate Warriors operating model, which has been in place in Lempäälä for several years, involves the school facilitating and supporting climate action for which the ideas come from young people themselves, as well as related learning. Instead of merely learning about social action in school, the students engage in social action in school and learn from it. Among other activities, the students have challenged companies to take climate action, collected information on climate action taken by local residents, and organised an election panel.
What if parents and grandparents were to actively engage in climate action? In Finland, many parents and grandparents have actively engaged in climate action to protect the future of their children and grandchildren. Climate Parents Finland is a popular movement of parents and other relatives of children who are concerned about climate change and call on decision-makers to make the mitigation of the climate catastrophe the highest priority in politics. This goal is shared by Climate Grandparents, a group of grandparents who want to support the actions of children and young people and promote intergenerational equity.
What if emotions were better recognised as an asset in the sustainability transformation? Sustainability-related challenges can evoke a wide range of emotions, including guilt, fear, sadness and anxiety. Ideally, emotions feed action, but they can also lead to cynicism and passivity. The website Hope and Action features exercises that help people process their emotions and can support the wellbeing of children, young people and adults alike in this time of sustainability crisis.
Where will we find the preconditions for the wellbeing of children and young people in the future?
The wellbeing of children and young people has been a topic of considerable discussion in recent times. Mental health challenges have increased particularly among young people. The proportion of young people who are satisfied with their lives has decreased. According to the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare’s school health promotion survey, wellbeing among children and young people has declined. The reasons given by children and young people for this decline in perceived wellbeing include anxiety, bullying and fear of social situations. Addressing these types of factors requires a long-term willingness to take action, a large number of operators and close cooperation with a systemic approach.
However, many children and young people report being satisfied with their life. The majority of young people feel that their health is good, but one in four feel that their health is average or poor. Indeed, wellbeing is increasingly divided, and disadvantage accumulates. Poverty and disadvantage experienced in childhood have various impacts on an individual’s life, both in childhood and later in adulthood.
Increasing childhood inequality is an issue that has caught the attention of many parties. For example, the Child Advisory Board (2020) has highlighted inequality and related exclusion as one of the most significant factors influencing the future of children and young people. Inequality among children and young people is increased by minority status, poverty among families with children and substance abuse and mental health problems in families.
The poverty and educational attainment of parents are both known to be easily passed on to the next generation. According to a study published by Itla, the intergenerational transmission of poverty is explained not only by inadequate opportunities to invest in children’s wellbeing but also stress experienced by family members, which can affect the quality of parental care and the social and emotional development of the children. Economic and social problems are often interlinked, but positive interaction can mitigate the negative effects of poverty.
The root causes of wellbeing-related challenges run deep
Solutions to wellbeing-related challenges have been, and are being, sought at many levels of society. Legislative initiatives such as the youth therapy guarantee and allocating resources to support services for children and young people are important, but attention should also be paid to the underlying root causes of the problems. Many of these root causes are cultural in nature. There are no simple solutions to such problems, but they need to be addressed if we are to build sustainable wellbeing in the future.
Research data and discussion on the impacts of social media on the mental health of children and young people has increased rapidly. In his much-discussed book “The Anxious Generation”, author Jonathan Haidt (2024) links the increased mental health challenges experienced by children and young people with the concurrent increased consumption of smart devices and social media. His view of this “great rewiring of childhood” also encompasses overprotection, whereby the physical risks of the growth environments of children and young people are overestimated and virtual risks are underestimated.
The deeper reasons behind wellbeing-related challenges include the intensification of competitive culture and consumption culture, a growing emphasis on individuality at the expense of community, as well as polarisation and racism in society. Economic, social and cultural factors are interlinked and can intensify the increase in inequality among children and young people. This is reflected in bullying, for example, which is a significant threat to children’s wellbeing and development. Studies show that children from low-income or immigrant families are at greatest risk of being bullied.
Increasing inequality and its impacts on children and young people is a global problem. In IFTF’s foresight report, systemic othering is highlighted as one of the most significant drivers of change affecting the future of children and young people. It refers to new forms of othering that shrink the circle of human concerns and will systematically threaten the health and wellbeing of children, families, and communities. This is anticipated to lead to deepening political fissures, economic inequality, health disparities, displacement and the segregation of communities.
In this time of polycrisis, systemic solutions and futures consciousness are needed
Multiple simultaneous societal crises weaken the position of people who are vulnerable to begin with. A foresight report by UNICEF (2023) describes the world of the polycrisis from the perspective of children and young people. Phenomena such as global warming, wars, conflicts, the food and energy crisis, inflation, geopolitical tensions, the crisis of democracy and problems related to multilateral cooperation all affect children and young people’s wellbeing, and the conditions for it, in various ways. Globally, the long-standing positive global development related to children’s wellbeing (child poverty, nutrition, mortality, learning) has been halted or even reversed.
In a time of polycrisis and metacrisis, surprises and uncertainties, there is a need for systemic solutions that comprehensively take the perspective of children and young people into consideration. At the same time, there is a need to rethink and rebuild the relationship with the future. Sustainable solutions to future wellbeing challenges cannot be found in the past. Instead, the search for solutions must be focused on the future.
Developing futures consciousness can help individuals and organisations alike to strengthen their resources in relation to the future. Futures consciousness has five dimensions: time perspective, agency belief, openness to alternatives, systems perception and concern for others.
Futures consciousness has been found to have a positive correlation with an individual’s resources. A study conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic showed that future-conscious people coped better with the crisis. They were also more active in participating in activities that supported their respective communities during the pandemic. The results of the study suggest that futures consciousness could be a significant source of sustainable wellbeing in a time of uncertainties. Strengthening people’s futures consciousness enables us to create wellbeing not only for today’s children and young people but also those who will come after them.
Glimpses of alternative futures
What if we made better use of the health benefits of natural environments? According to research data accumulated on the health effects of natural environments in recent years, natural environments and local nature can have significant benefits for public health. For children and young people, exposure to nature reduces stress, improves mood and promotes physical activity, for example.
What if children were given the opportunity to define a good childhood? In 2021, Save the Children UK asked over 400 children what they would want childhood to be like for children growing up in 2040. The children hoped for a future where everyone has a caring family, a clean environment and access to the same resources. They wanted a future without inequality and discrimination and with more of a connection with nature and between people. While they expressed excitement about the possibilities presented by technology, they also hoped that the children would have the opportunity to play and be outside.
What if there were child-friendly spaces everywhere — even in the middle of crises? Child-friendly spaces is an operating model that offers children the opportunity to have a safe environment even in difficult situations, such as various crises and disasters. In child-friendly spaces, children can be children and take part in different activities such as games, crafts and playing under the guidance of safe adults. The operating model supports children’s ability to cope with exceptional circumstances.
How do we ensure intergenerational economic equity?
The economic foundation and institutions of the Finnish welfare society were built after World War II, in circumstances where industrialisation, the explosive growth of the consumption of fossil fuels and natural resources and the growth of the working-age population guaranteed practically continuous economic growth that lasted for almost half a century. As a result, Finland quickly developed from a poor agricultural society into one of the world’s leading countries in terms of both wealth and wellbeing.
At the same time, practically every new generation of working-age people achieved a higher standard of living than the previous generation and was able to enjoy the improved services of the expanding welfare state. It was under these circumstances that the generational contract that is still in effect was created. Under the generational contract, the working-age population is responsible for supporting and funding the welfare society and the pension system, and looking after both younger and older generations.
As a result of dwindling economic growth, the ageing of the population, growing inequality and the escalating ecological crisis, the future outlook today is very different than it was in the decades when the welfare state was built. At the same time, the issue of intergenerational equity and the rights of future generations has emerged. Today’s welfare society is based on a demographic pyramid scheme of sorts, where children, young people and future generations will pay the price, both literally and figuratively.
From the perspective of intergenerational economic equity, the key questions are related to 1) the funding of the Finnish welfare society and pension system in the shorter term, and 2) the erosion of the ecological and social foundations of the current economic system in the longer term. The past few years have seen growing calls in Finland and internationally for the renewal of the intergenerational contract so that future generations’ opportunities for economically, ecologically and socially sustainable life can be secured in the long term.
Economic sustainability is being put to the test
With respect to the funding of the welfare society and pension system, the problem is that, due to the long-term trend of population ageing and, above all, the rapid decline in the birth rate in the 2010s, the increasingly small working-age population will have to support a growing number of dependants in the future. When this deterioration of the demographic dependency ratio is combined with rising age-linked costs and the subdued growth outlook of the Finnish economy, the likely consequence is the weakening of the position of future generations due to, among other things, higher taxes and pension contributions while simultaneously the national economy’s sustainability declines and welfare society services need to be cut and allocated towards the growing elderly population.
Intergenerational inequity is also exacerbated by the short-term nature of societal decision-making. As a result, since the 1990s, economic adjustment measures have often targeted children, young people, students and future generations. Adjustment measures targeted at children and young people have concrete negative impacts on their lives and wellbeing in the short and long term.
Introduced in Finland in 2021, the National Child Strategy aims to address this issue and promote the realisation of children’s rights and interests in all societal decision-making through practices such as child budgeting and child impact assessments. Ageing people and those who are already retired constitute an interest group that has a loud voice, a high level of voting activity and plenty of influence. This has made the issue of reforming the pension system, or even discussing such reforms, a very difficult political issue.
The intergenerational contract is crumbling
There are already various weak and strong signals of the crumbling of the intergenerational contract that is unjust from the perspective of children and young people. For example, while the UN’s World Happiness Report suggests that, year after year, Finland is home to the world’s happiest adults, the same cannot be said for children and young people. On the contrary, in various studies and reports measuring happiness among children and young people, Finland typically does not even make it into the top ten.
A similarly worrying trend can be observed with regard to faith in the future: traditionally, faith in the future is linked with youth but, over the past decade or so, it has been noted that faith in the future has deteriorated among young people specifically, while the opposite trend has been observed among the elderly. According to a study of values and attitudes published by the Finnish Business and Policy Forum EVA in 2024, the proportion of Finnish young people who have an optimistic view of Finland’s future has decreased by 20 percentage points and the proportion of those who have an optimistic view of the future of the world has fallen by nearly 50 percentage points when compared to 2020.
Increasing child poverty and inequality, the ethos of economic competition and individualism and deteriorating faith in the future will also have a negative feedback loop on Finland’s long-term economic development. For example, PISA studies have found that a child’s socio-economic status has a stronger impact on learning outcomes and educational choices than before, which is in conflict with Finland’s aim of accelerating economic growth by increasing the population’s educational attainment and the productivity of the economy.
At the same time, the social climate of emphasising economic growth, competition and individual responsibility, which has strengthened since the 1990s, has significantly changed the growth environment of children and young people, and society’s growing expectations may at least partly explain the rapid increase in mental health problems among young people. In addition, the uncertainty experienced by young people and young adults regarding the future and their own livelihood is connected to the decline in birth rates in the 2010s and consequently the deterioration of the dependency ratio, economic sustainability and growth potential in the coming years and decades.
The eco-crisis also exacerbates economic inequity
In the longer term, a factor that erodes intergenerational equity even more significantly than the economic sustainability gap is related to the unsustainability of the current economic system in terms of both the climate and the consumption of natural resources. In Western industrialised countries like Finland, the Great Acceleration that began after World War II led to sustained economic growth and a rising material standard of living from one generation to the next, but it was always built on an ecologically unsustainable foundation. As in the case of the economic sustainability gap, the adverse impacts and costs of the ecological sustainability gap will also be borne by those who did not cause the problem, i.e. children, young people and future generations, especially in the Global South.
Resolving the economic sustainability gap in Finland and globally requires a comprehensive sustainability transition that is also equitable from the perspective of different generations. Delays in climate and nature action lead to increasing costs and risks, also from the economic perspective. Although the green transition and circular economy increase costs in the short term, they will create new business, promote economic growth and create jobs in the long term. It is clear that investments in the sustainability transition will, in any case, be less costly than failing to make them. Failure to resolve the ecological sustainability gap and issues related to intergenerational inequity could result in young people no longer perceiving the current economic system as worth preserving and thinking that it is in conflict with the measures required to mitigate climate change.
Ensuring intergenerational equity and protecting the rights of future generations requires that decision-making structures and governance be reformed at the national and international levels so that they better support long-term decision-making. At the international level, a significant step forward was taken at the UN Summit of the Future held in September 2024. The Summit of the Future concluded with the adoption of a Pact for the Future, along with an attached Declaration on Future Generations that emphasises that sustainability and the needs of future generations must be better taken into account in decision-making. The School of International Futures has outlined a framework for such governance that is capable of taking intergenerational equity into consideration and ensuring the long-term wellbeing of people and the planet.
To protect and represent the interests and rights of future generations, countries such as Wales, Hungary and Israel have created new positions in the public administration for representatives of future generations. In Finland, the issue of taking future generations better into consideration in legislation and decision-making is addressed in the latest Government Report on the Future, and a national hub consisting of Demos Helsinki, Fingo and Sitra has been established to examine governance in the long term.
Glimpses of alternative futures
What if working life in the future no longer attracts young people and is seen as too demanding? According to a report on young people and the future, young people are now more concerned about their future working life than they were before the pandemic. In 2024, only 53% of the surveyed young people said they are enthusiastically looking forward to working life, compared to 82% of the respondents in the 2018 survey. Among lower and upper secondary school students, 37% feared that their future working life will be too demanding. The percentage of respondents who believe they will find their own place in working life also decreased from the previous survey. The question of young people’s faith in the future and working life is an existential issue for the future of Finnish society as a whole. Its societal significance can be illustrated by comparing it to a situation where companies lose their confidence in the future: they do not invest, employ people or grow.
What if young people’s faith in education as a path to a better standard of living and wellbeing is eroded? In the United States, people’s confidence in higher education has fallen sharply over a short period of time. The underlying reasons include the political divide and the rising costs of higher education. In Finland, young people still have strong faith in education, but the lack of desirable future prospects, especially in more remote regions, appears to have a negative effect on the motivation to attend school, especially among boys.
What if both public and private investments were always assessed in relation to the wellbeing of children? All companies have an impact on children’s lives in one way or another, but few companies recognise children as a key stakeholder. According to a study by UNICEF Finland, only a quarter of listed companies take children’s rights into account in their business operations but, in the future, awareness and data will make it possible for companies to increase their positive impacts on children and reduce their negative impacts. Child budgeting is a way to produce information on the allocation of public funds to children and goals set for children’s wellbeing, and monitor the results achieved.
Keep the futures of children and young people open
Megatrends have diverse impacts on the lives of children and young people. Changes come from many directions and have different impacts on children and young people from different backgrounds and in different life situations. Many changes have a negative impact on children’s lives: many long-standing positive trends (e.g. nutrition, education, child mortality and child poverty) have stopped or been reversed, and there are also new challenges related to megatrends and their intertwined nature, which we have sought to describe in this article. These changes are real and we need to recognise them. We adults can influence the future now, which is why we have a duty to take action.
Various alternative futures can be illustrated with a cone of possibilities that describes the various possible, desirable and undesirable scenarios that emerge from the present moment. In this article, we have highlighted future issues related to demographic trends, intergenerational equity, democracy, technology, the economy and wellbeing. How these issues are addressed and what actions are taken in relation to them today will have a considerable impact on what the future looks like for children and young people, and what alternatives and choices are open to them. A child’s right to a good future means a broad cone of possibilities in which the opportunities for a good future have not been limited ahead of time.
In recent years, young people’s faith in the future has declined or even collapsed. What is alarming and noteworthy about this phenomenon is that it appears to affect young people specifically instead of affecting the entire population. In historical terms, this is an exceptional development, as optimism about the future has traditionally been associated with youth. However, a 2021 survey of attitudes and values published by the Finnish Business and Policy Forum EVA reveals that this relationship between pessimism and optimism has turned on its head in recent years in Finland: pessimism is now highest among young people and young adults, while optimism is highest among people aged over 65. In particular, young people are worried about the future of Finland and the world. This is unsurprising given that young people have grown up in a world shaken by several consecutive and overlapping crises: the economic crisis, the environmental crisis, the security crisis and the energy crisis.
We adults have an undeniable moral duty to nurture and strengthen young people’s faith in the future.
However, the future of children and young people is even more affected by how we, the adults of today, respond to the challenges and take the perspectives of children and young people into consideration as we seek solutions and build the future. We adults have an undeniable moral duty to nurture and strengthen young people’s faith in the future. This relates not only to how we talk about the future but above all to the fact that we are presently building a future that children and young people can, and want to, believe in. Building a better future requires us to move from reactive corrective actions to proactive influence and set a direction towards desirable futures.
So, what are the desirable futures? There is currently no shortage of threats in the public discussion. That is why we should talk more about inspiring visions for the future of children and young people, including their childhood and youth, and the values and ideals on which we want to build the future. In this discussion, it would also be important to pay attention to the views of children and young people regarding desirable futures.
At the core of future-oriented thinking is the identification of the values and ideals on which childhood and youth are based, and how their future is perceived. With the help of megatrends, trends and weak signals, we have identified how the world of adults penetrates the world of children — often stealthily and too early. This is reflected in the early commercialisation and increasing competitiveness of childhood, for example. We may be appalled by some of the weak signals around the world, such as a fragrance intended for babies or hair removal services for children, but are we able to adequately identify and promote the values and ideals on which childhood, youth and the future are built?
Children and young people are not isolated from the fears of adults or identity politics. In addition, our security environment has changed dramatically, which is why it is appropriate to discuss how changes in overall security and perceptions of security affect the lives of children and young people. One of Jonathan Haidt’s (2024) key theses is that the underlying reasons behind mental health problems among young people include not only social media and smartphones but also their parents’ increased focus on safety. This is an interesting perspective, especially in the context of Finland, where childhood and youth are defined by freedom and early independence when compared to many other countries.
Building the future is ultimately about power relations. Children and young people are the future if they have the opportunity to build the future and influence things.
Children and young people are often at the forefront of stepping into the future. They may experience certain phenomena well before those phenomena penetrate the world of adults. This can include trends and issues related to equality, diversity, gender diversity, or other issues associated with culture and values. That is why it is important for children and young people to be involved in discussions about the future as active makers of the future. Building the future is ultimately about power relations. Children and young people are the future if they have the opportunity to build the future and influence things.
The future of childhood is not predetermined. There are many possible futures that we can work towards, which gives us hope.
Writers
Specialist, Sitra
Specialist, Sitra
CEO, Itla Children’s Foundation
Haidt, Jonathan (2024) Kuinka älypuhelimeen perustuva lapsuus on aiheuttanut mielenterveyden häiriöiden epidemian. Terra Cognita.
Uski, Suvi (2024) Mitä some tekee meille? Tammi.
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